Your posting should be made the day for which you are assigned. Be sure to include time and date stamps on everything. Your posting is required to contain at the minimum the following details:
(1) “Weather Discussion” for your forecast period
a. Separate your discussion by (i) weather analysis, (ii) forecast. In the event of three people assigned during any given week the forecast period should be further broken into any two of the following: (a) nowcast (within the next 6 hours), medium range (next three day), and long-range (4-10) period. Your discussion should use appropriate meteorological language while also communicating terminology to the lay person.
b. Attach at least one diagnostic upper-level field (e.g., 500hPa height/vorticity, 300hPa wind velocity, satellite/radar) and one surface field (temperature, precipitation accumulation) that you will use in an illustrative manner to support your forecast.
c. When using forecasts, be sure to explicitly state which model you used and further which run was used. You may also want to state why you used that model. It also might help to highlight model differences as a means of expressing probabilistic forecasts.
(2) Discussion of the “Notable Event” or "Challenge" for your forecast period
a. Provide a description of the synoptic-scale (large-scale) and/or mesoscale (local scale) drivers important in the event.
b. I would suggest using the NWS "Forecast Discussion" as a starting point if you don't have a good lead on where to begin.
c. For weather analysis this piece can be omitted.
You should aim for about two well written paragraphs for individual components of the weather analysis and forecast each. Both should be ideally coordinated among the forecast team. Forty percent of your grade will be your effectiveness in communicate the science of weather forecasting to the lay-person. You will be graded on completeness of your posting (inclusion of all required elements, 40%), ability to communicate your forecast discussion effectively with graphics (including your explanation of scientific concepts, 20%) and your ability to form well written paragraphs (40%).
(1) “Weather Discussion” for your forecast period
a. Separate your discussion by (i) weather analysis, (ii) forecast. In the event of three people assigned during any given week the forecast period should be further broken into any two of the following: (a) nowcast (within the next 6 hours), medium range (next three day), and long-range (4-10) period. Your discussion should use appropriate meteorological language while also communicating terminology to the lay person.
b. Attach at least one diagnostic upper-level field (e.g., 500hPa height/vorticity, 300hPa wind velocity, satellite/radar) and one surface field (temperature, precipitation accumulation) that you will use in an illustrative manner to support your forecast.
c. When using forecasts, be sure to explicitly state which model you used and further which run was used. You may also want to state why you used that model. It also might help to highlight model differences as a means of expressing probabilistic forecasts.
(2) Discussion of the “Notable Event” or "Challenge" for your forecast period
a. Provide a description of the synoptic-scale (large-scale) and/or mesoscale (local scale) drivers important in the event.
b. I would suggest using the NWS "Forecast Discussion" as a starting point if you don't have a good lead on where to begin.
c. For weather analysis this piece can be omitted.
You should aim for about two well written paragraphs for individual components of the weather analysis and forecast each. Both should be ideally coordinated among the forecast team. Forty percent of your grade will be your effectiveness in communicate the science of weather forecasting to the lay-person. You will be graded on completeness of your posting (inclusion of all required elements, 40%), ability to communicate your forecast discussion effectively with graphics (including your explanation of scientific concepts, 20%) and your ability to form well written paragraphs (40%).