Forecasts must be submitted before the forecast period begins. All submissions after will be discarded. Forecasts will be scored using the guidelines from http://www.wxchallenge.com/ . A one point deduction is given for each degree your high and low temperatures are off, and a half point for every mile per hour your wind speed is off. For precipitation the deduction is more complicated:
The same point system will be used for snowfall totals, except that we'll first divide snowfall totals by 10.
Like in golf, the lowest score wins. Ten, five and three extra credit points will be awarded to top three forecasters. Ten points is approximately equal to a full letter grade increase on an exam!
- .4 points for each .01 of error in the verification range from 0.00 - .10 inclusive (e.g., if it rains 0.05" and you guessed 0.2", = 0.4*15 = 6)
- .3 points for each .01 of error in the verification range from 0.11 to 0.25 inclusive
- .2 points for each .01 of error in the verification range from 0.26 to 0.50 inclusive
- .1 points for each .01 of error in the verification range over 0.50 (e.g., if it rains 0.75" and you guessed 0.2", = 0.1*55 = 5.5
The same point system will be used for snowfall totals, except that we'll first divide snowfall totals by 10.
Like in golf, the lowest score wins. Ten, five and three extra credit points will be awarded to top three forecasters. Ten points is approximately equal to a full letter grade increase on an exam!